DCRO: Probability of Drone Flyaways Much Lower Than Regulators Assume
The probability of a drone flyaway is significantly lower than what regulatory bodies such as EASA assume. This is the conclusion of the Dutch Association of Certified RPAS Operators (DCRO) in a recent white paper, based on collected statistics from professional drone operators and manufacturers. The report calls for a revision of current regulations and states that the risks for professional operators in the Specific category are unjustifiably overestimated.
Flyaway Probability Proven to Be Lower Than Assumed
According to JARUS guidelines, on which the SORA methodology is based, the probability of an uncontrolled flyaway is estimated at 1 in 10,000 flight hours. However, data collected from DCRO members, four external operators, and drone manufacturer DJI suggests that this probability is closer to 1 in 1,000,000 flight hours. DCRO bases these findings on more than 1.4 million flight hours from its members, supplemented by additional data from DJI, which analyzed thousands of hours from commercial drone models.
Because the probability of a flyaway is significantly overestimated according to the SORA methodology, professional operators are, in many cases, wrongly required to use Flight Termination Systems (FTS) to meet enhanced containment requirements. This results in additional costs, increased complexity in permit applications, and introduces new safety risks. The upcoming SORA 2.5 does not offer any improvement, as it maintains the same probability estimate for flyaways.
“A flyaway is defined as a situation in which the drone flies outside the operational volume without the operator being able to regain control. Our report shows that EASA’s assumption that a single point of failure can lead to a flyaway is simply incorrect,” says DCRO chairman Pieter Franken.
Recommendations
DCRO calls on European aviation authorities (EASA) to:
1. Collect safety statistics in a uniform manner and make reporting mandatory for professional operators in all member states.
2. Ease containment requirements, as the probability of a flyaway is negligible.
DCRO emphasizes that professional drone operators already work with strict protocols and well-maintained drones, which contribute to overall safety.
A Challenge to Skeptics
While the report acknowledges that more data would be beneficial, Franken challenges critics to provide counter-evidence. “These are the only statistics currently available,” says Franken. “Anyone who doubts them should present solid data proving otherwise.”
With these findings, DCRO hopes not only to make regulations more realistic but also to reduce costs and operational burdens for professional operators.
Would you like to contribute to the professional development of the drone industry? Join DCRO. As a network of certified professionals, this industry association is committed to safe unmanned aviation, offering valuable benefits to its members. For more information about membership, contact info@dcro.nl.